The Los Angeles Lakers are heavy favorites as they welcome the New Orleans Pelicans to Crypto.com Arena on Friday, April 4, 2025, in what’s shaping up to be one of the most lopsided matchups of the NBA season’s final stretch. Tip-off is set for 10:30 p.m. Eastern Time, and despite the Lakers’ surprising 118-112 loss to the Golden State Warriors the night before, oddsmakers still see them as near-certainties to cover the -13.5 to -15 point spread. The Pelicans, sitting at 21-55 and on a three-game losing streak, are among the league’s worst defensive units — ranked 29th in defensive rating — and haven’t won a road game in over a month. Here’s the thing: this isn’t just another regular-season game. It’s a test of resilience for the Lakers, who’ve proven they can still dominate even after back-to-back nights, and a glaring reminder of how far the Pelicans still have to go.
Home Dominance and Back-to-Back Resilience
The Lakers, at 46-30, are clinging to the No. 4 seed in the Western Conference — a spot they lost after Thursday’s loss. But don’t mistake that for weakness. They’re 19-11 against the spread when favored at home this season, the fourth-best mark in the NBA. And when it comes to the second game of back-to-backs? They’re 4-1 straight up and against the spread when playing at home. That’s not luck. That’s coaching. That’s depth. That’s Austin Reaves heating up. The guard has scored 20+ points in 10 of his last 12 games, averaging 26.3 during that stretch. He’s not just a scorer; he’s the engine when LeBron James rests, and he’ll likely carry more of the load Friday night after a physical game against Golden State.
The Pelicans, meanwhile, are a mess on the road. Their net rating over the last 10 away games is a brutal -13.3. They’ve lost eight of their last 10 overall. And now, without Jordan Hawkins — ruled out on April 3 — and with Antonio Reeves listed as "retreating to bench" on game day, their backcourt is in shambles. No elite shot creation. No reliable secondary scoring. Just a team that’s been outscored by an average of 12.8 points per game this season.
Betting Trends Tell the Real Story
Oddsmakers aren’t just guessing here. FanDuel, DraftKings, and bet365 all have the Lakers as -1100 to -1205 on the moneyline. That’s a 93% implied win probability. The over/under sits at 220.5, with 59% of total wagers leaning Over — and for good reason. Lakers games have gone Over 38 times this season, and Pelicans games? They’ve gone Over in 53.9% of their contests, even on the road. The total opened at 221.5, dipped to 219.5 overnight, then bounced back to 220.5 once it was confirmed Reaves and LeBron would play. That’s the market reacting to real-time intel.
Here’s the twist: while 59% of money is on the Over, 53% of bettors are taking the Pelicans +13.5. That’s a classic "public money" play — fans love underdogs, especially when they’re giving points. But sharp bettors? They’re lining up on the Lakers. The Lakers have covered the spread 41 times this season (41-33-2 ATS). The Pelicans? Just 32 times (32-42-2 ATS). And on the road? They’re 12-26-0 ATS. That’s not a fluke. That’s a pattern.
Expert Picks and Broadcast Details
"Meanwhile, despite yesterday’s loss, the Lakers are 19-11 against the spread when favored at home — the fourth-best mark in the NBA. I’d be shocked to see Los Angeles struggle against a Pelicans team that has a net rating of -13.3 points over its last 10 games," said Sports Illustrated’s betting analyst, before explicitly recommending: "Pick: Lakers -13.5 (-110 at DraftKings)." That’s not just opinion — it’s data-driven conviction. The Lakers’ offensive efficiency at home (115.9 PPG) and the Pelicans’ defensive collapse (121.6 opponent PPG allowed) don’t just add up — they explode.
For viewers, the game will air locally on Spectrum SportsNet in Los Angeles and FanDuel Sports Network New Orleans (formerly Bally Sports New Orleans). Streaming is available via NBA League Pass and FuboTV, though regional blackouts apply. No matter how you watch, you’re seeing a team on the rise against one still searching for identity.
What’s Really at Stake?
This isn’t about playoff seeding — the Lakers are locked in the top four. But it’s about momentum. About proving they can win ugly. About silencing doubters who think their loss to Golden State was a sign of fatigue. The Pelicans? They’re playing for pride, for draft positioning, for a glimpse of what could be. But right now, they’re not even close to being competitive against a healthy, focused Lakers squad.
Look at the numbers again: 41-33-2 ATS for LAL. 12-26-0 ATS on the road for NOP. 59% of wagers on the Over. 93% implied win probability. The math doesn’t lie. And the eye test? Even more convincing. The Lakers are playing with purpose. The Pelicans are playing for tomorrow. That’s why this game won’t be close.
Frequently Asked Questions
Why are the Lakers such heavy favorites despite losing their last game?
Even after their loss to Golden State, the Lakers remain one of the NBA’s most consistent cover teams, with a 41-33-2 ATS record this season. Their 19-11 ATS mark when favored at home and 4-1 SU/ATS record in second games of back-to-backs at home show they respond to adversity. The Pelicans’ -13.3 net rating over their last 10 games and 12-26-0 road ATS record make them one of the league’s weakest road teams — so the loss doesn’t change the matchup’s fundamentals.
How do injuries impact the Pelicans’ chances?
The Pelicans are without starting guard Jordan Hawkins, who was ruled out on April 3, and Antonio Reeves, who was listed as "retreating to bench" on game day — essentially a late scratch. That leaves them with minimal backcourt depth, especially against a Lakers team that pressures the ball and forces turnovers. Without Hawkins’ scoring punch and Reeves’ defensive energy, New Orleans’ offense becomes predictable and easily contained.
Why is the Over trending so strongly despite the Lakers’ home underperformance?
While the Lakers have gone Under at home 53.8% of the time, the Pelicans have gone Over in 57.9% of their road games. Their defense allows 121.6 points per game on average — the worst in the league. Even if the Lakers slow down, New Orleans’ inability to guard anyone ensures high-scoring outcomes. The 220.5 total reflects this imbalance, and Sports Gambler’s internal probability of 55-60% for the Over confirms it’s a value play.
What’s the historical context for Lakers-Pelicans matchups this season?
The Lakers won both meetings this season: a 128-115 home win in November and a 119-109 road win in January. In both games, they covered the spread by double digits. The Pelicans never led by more than five points in either game. This isn’t a rivalry — it’s a mismatch. The Lakers have outscored them by an average of 17.5 points per game this year, and their pace and depth are too much for New Orleans’ thin rotation.
Is the -13.5 spread a good value bet?
Yes. The Lakers are 7-5 SU and ATS in back-to-back games this season, and 4-1 ATS when playing the second game at home. The Pelicans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games and 1-6 ATS in their last seven away games. With the Pelicans’ defense ranked 29th and their offensive efficiency at 108.8 PPG, the Lakers should win by 15-20 points. The -13.5 line is generous — especially at -110 on DraftKings.
Who are the key players to watch beyond LeBron and Reaves?
For the Lakers, Anthony Davis is critical — he’s averaging 25.7 points and 12.1 rebounds over his last 10 games. If he’s healthy, he’ll dominate the paint against New Orleans’ weak interior defense. For the Pelicans, Herb Jones is their only consistent defender, but he’ll be overmatched against L.A.’s size. Also watch rookie center Zach Edey — if he gets minutes, he could be a surprise factor with his rebounding and rim protection.
Dorian Caulfield
Hello, my name is Dorian Caulfield, and I am a passionate chef with expertise in cooking and creating unique recipes. I love to experiment with various ingredients and techniques, always looking for ways to elevate traditional dishes. My culinary journey has taken me around the world, constantly learning and refining my skills. I enjoy sharing my knowledge and passion for food by writing about recipes and cooking tips. My goal is to inspire others to find joy in the kitchen and create delicious meals with love and creativity.
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